Global cotton production estimates have seen a notable drop compared to last month, decreasing from 25.9 million tonnes to 25.5 million tonnes. This reduction is attributed to declines in three key countries: United States (-400,000 tonnes), Pakistan (-100,000 tonnes), and Sudan (-50,000 tonnes). Water shortages and persistent dry weather conditions have impacted production in the US and Pakistan, while Sudan’s crop losses are primarily due to pest infestations. Although global cotton consumption and trade figures remain stable, there are noticeable shifts in trading partners. The share of US cotton exports going to China, which accounted for 40% in 2023/24, has now dropped to just 8%. The US is now exporting more to Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, and India. A recent US executive order exempting products made from US raw materials from import tariffs has further intensified the need for traceability in the textile supply chain. Retailers and brands are increasingly requiring proof of cotton origin, making traceability a critical factor for manufacturers. Two other important developments include:

• India’s cotton lint imports have surged 3.3 times in 2024/25 compared to the previous season.
• Bangladesh and India are expected to increase their imports of US cotton.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) is performing a comprehensive data rectification process, updating figures for all regions and countries. This month, Ethiopia’s cotton data (2014/15 to present) has been revised using inputs from the Ethiopian Cotton Organization, Ethiopia Revenue and Customs Service, and Trade Data Monitor.

ICAC’s latest price projection for the 2025/26 season, based on current supply and demand, is 60 to 96 cents per pound, with a midpoint forecast of 76 cents per pound. The monthly report Cotton This Month is authored by Parkhi Vats, ICAC Economic Affairs Officer. Subscribers can access full data via their accounts, and new users can subscribe for the next release scheduled for October 1, 2025.