CareEdge Ratings has released its latest edition of the Economic Pathway for July 2025, highlighting key macroeconomic trends shaping India’s fiscal outlook. Key Highlights:

• GST collections rose by 11.8% and e-way bills surged 20.5% YoY in Q1 FY26.
• Passenger vehicle and 2–3 wheeler sales dipped by 1.4% and 6%, respectively.
• CPI inflation eased to 2.1% in June, while core inflation ticked up to 4.4% due to rising precious metal prices.
• Sowing area grew 6.7% YoY as of July 11, led by pulses and cereals, though oilseeds declined.
• The Centre’s capital expenditure reached 20% of the FY26 target by May, outperforming the previous year’s pace.
• Merchandise exports improved modestly; services exports grew 10.9% despite global headwinds.
• The Weighted Average Call Rate (WACR) was 24 bps below the policy rate, but may rise due to VRRR auctions.
• No further RBI rate cuts are expected unless major downside risks to growth emerge.
• The 10-year GSec yield rose by 9 bps, while the rupee depreciated 2.3% against the dollar since May. Forecasts:
• GDP growth: 6.4% for FY26
• Average CPI: 3.5%
• CAD: 0.9% of GDP
• USD/INR range: 85–87
• 10Y GSec yield: 6.0%–6.2% Download the full July 2025 report PDF here:
  CareEdge_Economic_Pathway_July_2025.pdf